Oscar Predictions: Prepare for a Spicy Clash of the Titans, as Netflix’s Biggest Contender May Be Too Small to Win

I was about to wish you all a Happy Monday… but I was saved by the bell, as we’re actually starting with some sad news tonight.

Dennis Haskins, best known for playing Principal Belding on Saved by the Bell, has died at age 75. I don’t know about you, but I grew up watching that show, and even though I was always rooting for Zack Morris and Co. to outsmart Belding, a part of me loved the guy and knew he was just looking out for those damn kids. He’s probably the best high school principal in all of TV history, so here’s to you, Mr. Belding! R.I.P. Dennis. My heart goes out to his friends and family…

Speaking of family, I’m back on the East Coast enjoying some family time this week, but I know I owe you guys some newsletters, so prepare for a busy week as I play catch-up.

Let’s start with a pair of big director hires this week — Lucasfilm has tapped Jon Watts to direct Star Wars: Episode X, while Mike P. Nelson is set to direct the Saw reboot for Lionsgate and Blumhouse-Atomic Monster.

Watts is a solid if unexciting choice for Star Wars. First of all, he makes total sense, having directed Spider-Man: Homecoming, Spider-Man: Far From Home, and Spider-Man: No Way Home — a trilogy that grossed $4 billion and paved the way for Spider-Man: Brand New Day, which has grossed nearly $2.5 billion all on its own.

Not only does Watts have relationships with Tom Holland and Zendaya — two stars Lucasfilm would love to get its hands on — but more importantly, he has a relationship with Dave Filoni and Carrie Beck, who run its creative side.

Filoni needed a filmmaker willing to make the Star Wars movie that he wants Episode X to be and one he could trust with the franchise’s future, and Watts fit that bill, having previously worked with Lucasfilm on the Disney+ series Skeleton Crew.

Episode X will continue the Skywalker saga, and while there’s no cast yet (Watts doesn’t even have a closed deal), I would expect Daisy Ridley to be involved in some capacity, as Disney has already spent significant resources investing in her character, Rey, over the past decade.

Again, Watts may not be the most exciting choice, but I really liked his Spidey trilogy, as well as his Kevin Bacon thriller Cop Car. Between those movies and Watts’ decision to cast Austin Abrams alongside A-listers George Clooney and Brad Pitt in Wolfs, it’s clear that he has a strong eye for young talent, which will likely come in handy for Episode X.

As for the Saw reboot, I feel similarly, in that Nelson isn’t the most exciting choice, but he certainly makes sense, having earned this opportunity. The Domestics was an interesting debut, and I really liked his 2021 reboot of Wrong Turn, where Nelson earned my respect. However, I was disappointed by his recent remake of Silent Night, Deadly Night, and I’ll admit that I haven’t given much thought to seeing his latest movie, Beware Boiuna, a movie about a giant snake.

I feel like Saw producers James Wan and Jason Blum could’ve made a more inspired hire, but at the same time, it could’ve been way worse, so I’m going to look on the bright side and give Nelson the benefit of the doubt here. I can’t wait to see who he casts as Jigsaw — if Jigsaw is a character in this reboot. Who knows, maybe Nelson is taking the franchise in a different direction? We’ll see…

Anyway, last week, I saw David Ayer’s Heart of the Beast, which nails one of the toughest genres to crack — it’s a good old-fashioned adventure movie. I’d call it a two-hander, but when one of the leads doesn’t have hands, that’s an awkward description.

As you know by now, Pitt plays a former soldier, and his dog, Odin, is a fellow veteran as well, having given one of his legs and several teeth for his country, and presumably, for Pitt himself.

Heart of the Beast rests on its two leads, and both are more than up to the task. This is the kind of picture that requires a true movie star to carry it, and Pitt plays the part to perfection. I can’t see many guys doing better, save for maybe Bradley Cooper. It’s the kind of role that Robert Redford might’ve played back in the day.

Meanwhile, Uber the Dog (and three of his offspring, technically) gives one of the greatest canine performances I’ve ever seen, right up there with Hooch, Beethoven, Air Bud, and Uggie from The Artist. 

The third act of Heart of the Beast takes on a more lyrical tone, which is what I assume Pitt — the star of The Tree of Life, for chrissakes — was probably fighting for in the editing room. For me, it really worked, and while I acknowledge that general audiences may find it too artsy-fartsy, I appreciated the film’s more emotionally vulnerable moments.

I also saw Lance Oppenheim’s new A24 movie Primetime, which I must say, was something of a disappointment. Don’t get me wrong, it was a compelling watch from start to finish — I just didn’t think it added up to all that much. I’m not really sure what the point of the movie was, or what its director was trying to say.

I’m also not sure he knew whose story he was telling. For a movie that is ostensibly about To Catch a Predator host Chris Hansen, played by Robert Pattinson on a live wire, I was surprised that the film’s final scene follows a different character — a bizarre choice, in my opinion.

Oppenheim does nail the scenes that recreate the creepy vibe of To Catch a Predator, and some of his casting choices (Alex Winter, Jonathan Lipnicki) are inspired, but as far as probing Hansen’s psychology, the film comes up short. And while Pattinson proves himself as a movie star once again, I preferred his more layered work in The Drama and The Odyssey.

He has Hansen’s smarmy voice and the mannerisms down, but he only skims the surface here and never quite digs deep enough. This is not nearly on the level of Jake Gyllenhaal’s turn in Nightcrawler, and there’s no way it’s going to be nominated for an Oscar, so go ahead and place those bets right now. It’s a hugely competitive year for Best Actor, as you’ll see below.

In fact, if this film stands a chance of an acting nod, it’ll be in one of the supporting categories for either Skyler Gisondo, who is excellent as the primary decoy (alongside Phoebe Bridgers), or Merritt Wever, who shines as Hansen’s complicit producer.

Finally, I watched Run Hide Fight: Infidels, and I’m not ashamed to admit that. Did I sign up for The Daily Wire to do so? No, of course not. But I saw it, because I was actually a big fan of the first film, and I don’t mind giving what some critics would call ‘right-wing cinema’ a chance.

But I have to say, Infidels is simply not very good. Jonathan Majors, its much-ballyhooed star, is in the movie for something like 15-20 minutes. I didn’t actually count his screen time because I am not a nerd, but it felt like he was barely in the film. 

There are things that I think Infidels gets right, but it’s also cartoonishly heavy-handed. The film’s script and performances, Majors’ included, leave much to be desired, and the film is way, way too long at 130 minutes. Uwe Boll’s Citizen Vigilante was 89 minutes, and that’s because it knew what it was — a cheesy B-movie masquerading as a serious statement. This movie somehow believes it’s making a serious statement, but the thing is that only good movies get people to actually listen, and this one is underwhelming, delivering shock value for just that sake.

What’s truly wild is that there are some reading this right now who are judging me for watching Infidels, as if I’m somehow a worse person for doing so. I find this reaction to be absurd. It’s like saying you’re a serial killer if you like serial killer movies.

Moving on, being back in Boston and reading The Boston Globe each morning, I’m fully aware of the paper’s recent article about the COVID-conscious lesbian bar in Western Massachusetts that ignited outrage when it dropped its mask mandate for one night a week — a story that garnered the paper thousands of subscriptions.

It’s a good story by Annalisa Quinn, full of juicy local drama, but I must say, I’m a little surprised that it has generated major interest from Hollywood, as the central crux of the story — to mask, or not to mask — simply isn’t that interesting.

Hollywood makes so few LGBTQ movies (a shame, mind you) that I’m not sure it makes sense to use one of those precious slots on a movie (or show) about infighting within the community, or a movie that further inflames tensions between the able-bodied and those with disabilities. I love movies that dig into small, tight-knit communities, but usually the drama is a bit more substantial than whether someone’s safe space has been compromised by the unmasked.

Everyone deserves a safe space, of course, but not every story deserves the big (or small) screen treatment. Sometimes, a print newspaper is the perfect medium. Though I suppose a Netflix documentary couldn’t hurt — especially if it helps save the bar.

UTA has already fielded multiple inquiries, so it’s not “last call” for this story just yet…

It’s also not last call for Oscar predictions, though I do have a brand new crop for you tonight now that the dust has settled on the fall festivals, and I’ve had a chance to catch up on a few of the titles I missed.

One movie you can seemingly cross off your list is Digger, which flopped with critics — nearly impossible to do in this day and age, mind you. But there are still plenty of questions to address. For example, is The Odyssey a runaway train, or is this actually the deepest Best Picture lineup in years? And does Netflix stand a chance with an international LGBTQ-themed feature? Is I Play Rocky now Amazon MGM’s strongest contender, or is it still Project Hail Mary? And could a documentary crack the Best Picture lineup for the first time ever?

Not only will we explore those questions together tonight, but I have a little bonus for you — a list of every film submitted for Best International Feature thus far. And I’ll be back soon with tips on how to win Vulture’s Fantasy Movie League, so stay tuned!

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